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Black Friday & Cyber Monday (BFCM) are periods when everyone is on the hunt for deals, creating both a huge opportunity and a major challenge for e-commerce brands.
While this means a massive jump in demand, it also calls for careful planning and flawless execution.
With so many moving parts during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, it’s easy for things to slip through the cracks.
That’s why we put together a Black Friday inventory checklist to help brands make 2025 their most successful holiday season yet.
Black Friday and Cyber Monday (BFCM) bring the biggest demand storms of the year for Shopify and eCommerce brands.
U.S. online holiday sales continue to break records; last year, BFCM Shopify sales reached $11.5 billion, with Black Friday capturing a major share of revenue. Millions of shoppers are active over the Thanksgiving-Cyber Monday weekend, making it a high-stakes period for inventory management.
Black Friday 2025 falls on November 28, and this should serve as your anchor date for planning things.
Align purchase order cutoffs, supplier lead times, and inbound shipments well in advance so that your shelves are stocked and ready.
Early preparation helps prevent stockouts, missed sales opportunities, and last-minute logistics chaos, so that the store captures holiday surge effectively.
We share actionable tips to help get fully prepared in the upcoming section:
To get ahead of Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales surges, we’ve compiled a list of 7 actionable steps to make you BFCM-ready.
First and foremost, set clear targets for what you want to achieve with this Black Friday Cyber Monday.
Look at last year’s sales, factor in your projected growth, and estimate lift from promotions. This gives you a concrete revenue and unit goal to aim for.
Next, determine your maximum inventory investment by setting a working capital limit you're comfortable carrying into January's slower period.
A safe rule: don't invest more than 60% of your expected BFCM revenue in additional inventory, as you'll need cash flow for January operations when sales typically drop 40-50%.
Contact your suppliers immediately to confirm manufacturing deadlines, minimum order quantities, and shipping cutoffs. Many factories stop production in late October for Chinese New Year preparations, making November restocks impossible.
Lock in these constraints now, then forecast within these boundaries rather than creating unrealistic demand projections that exceed your operational or financial capabilities.
Black Friday Cyber Monday period doesn’t follow the patterns of a regular week. A standard forecast won’t cut it; you need one built for BFCM dynamics.
Here’s how to make your demand forecast as accurate as possible.
Prediko’s AI makes forecasting easy by using the same period of last year’s sales, then layering growth trends, ABC analysis, seasonality, and promotional factors to create accurate predictions.
To turn forecasts into action, convert them into precise purchase quantities. Start by calculating your reorder point (ROP): ROP = Demand during lead time + Safety Stock. Safety stock should reflect Q4’s higher variability and longer lead times, with an extra buffer for top-selling SKUs.
With Prediko, you don’t need to manually calculate ROPs. Simply set safety stock and order frequency, and receive automated alerts for when and how much to reorder based on demand and lead times.
Next, set vendor-specific PO deadlines by counting backward from November 28, factoring in port congestion, customs, and 3PL intake to keep inventory flowing smoothly.
Finally, plan for uncertainty with demand scenarios: 1.0x (baseline), 1.5x (moderate surge), and 2.0x (extreme surge), assessing the impact on cash, margins, and risk.
Prediko lets you edits demand plans instantly to see how changes affect inventory and finances.
Smart inventory allocation is what separates a successful BFCM campaign from a stockout disaster.
Start with omnichannel allocation. Consider splitting stock between channels based on historical demand and marketing campaigns. This prevents overselling or stockouts and maintains a consistent customer experience across channels.
Coordinate early with 3PL partners to prevent fulfillment issues. Confirm receiving cutoffs for the new shipments. Most 3PLs stop accepting stock 7–10 days before Black Friday to focus on outbound orders.
Make sure they have staffing for 3-5x normal volumes and are clear on wave-picking schedules, so orders flow smoothly.
Finally, tie your fulfillment plan to your marketing commitments. Align pack-and-ship SLAs and delivery promises with carrier capacity and promotional deadlines.
Accurately communicate last-ship dates to customers to manage expectations, reduce cancellations, and maintain trust.
It is essential to monitor your store in real-time throughout BFCM. Keep a close eye on sell-through rates, low-stock alerts, and revenue versus plan.
Track how ad spend aligns with available inventory to avoid promoting items you can’t fulfill.
If a SKU is at risk of stockout, pause or cap promotions immediately to prevent overselling and customer frustration.
Take an inventory-aware approach to merchandising. When top-selling SKUs hit thresholds, promote adjacent substitutes to capture demand without losing sales. Use bundles and kits to move B- and C-tier inventory strategically, maintaining margins while maximizing sales.
If you’re using Prediko, it sends low-stock alerts factoring in the safety stock and lead times so that you’re stocked before the demand hits. It offers ABC analysis along with revenue vs plan insights, helping you make smarter decisions on promotions and replenishment
When your bestsellers approach stockout, don't panic-order expensive inventory that might arrive too late.
Instead, set up preorders and waitlists that capture customer demand while maintaining cash flow.
Set up preorders only when you have confirmed restock dates from suppliers. Customers will accept 2-3 week delays if you're transparent about timing, but they'll abandon orders if you keep pushing back delivery dates.
Create waitlists for uncertain restocks. Capture emails and phone numbers to retarget these high-intent customers with substitute products or future launches.
Deploy messaging to steer demand toward available products. For example, when your top-selling black hoodie hits low stock, send targeted emails/SMS to interested customers with your navy and gray options.
For financial safety, make it a habit to track Gross Margin Return on Investment (GMROI) daily, i.e., Gross Margin / Average Inventory Investment. Aim for GMROI above 3.0. Track cash burn versus plan; if it's 20% over plan, tighten promos and pause non-essential POs.
After BFCM, it’s critical to review what worked and what didn’t. A clear post-BFCM debrief helps you manage leftover stock, process returns quickly, and gather insights to improve next year’s strategy.
Predefine markdown triggers based on sales velocity and remaining stock levels. For example, reduce price by 15% if 30% of stock remains 3 days post BFCM.
Assign specific channels for liquidation and decide which SKUs can be bundled or offered as gifts to clear excess. Track the performance to inform your strategy next year.
First, separate return-prone SKUs and fast-track resellable items. Inspect returns immediately for damage, refurbishment, or repackaging, and restock quickly.
For unsellable items, decide whether to donate, recycle, or liquidate. Track high-return SKUs to guide future inventory planning and supplier negotiations.
Run a post-mortem within a week of BFCM. Record top and underperforming SKUs, lead-time deviations, and promotion impact on margin.
Note operational bottlenecks like stockouts or fulfillment delays. Use this template to refine forecasting, marketing, and operations for 2026.
Black Friday and Cyber Monday can make or break your year. Too little stock, and you miss sales. Too much, and cash gets tied up in inventory that may never move. The right tools can help you strike a balance.
Prediko has all the features to help Shopify brands plan smarter, act faster, and sell with confidence, so your team can focus on revenue instead of firefighting stock issues.
Its features include
With Prediko, BFCM doesn’t have to be a catch-up game. You get precision, visibility, and control over your inventory, so you can focus on growing revenue and delighting customers.
Black Friday and Cyber Monday can be the most profitable period for your Shopify store. However, success comes down to how well you plan, execute, and adapt in real time.
By following this 7-point Black Friday inventory checker: from pre-BFCM planning and allocation to live monitoring, stockout prevention, and post-BFCM debrief, you can stay ahead of demand, protect margins, and keep customers happy.
Prediko supports every step of the process, using AI to forecast demand and plan supply, track revenue against targets, manage multi-location inventory, streamline purchase orders, and generate actionable insights for future peak seasons.
With the right preparation and tools in place, you can beat all your past BFCM sales records. Start your free 14-day trial of Prediko and take the first step today.
